In a recent LinkedIn post, EV industry analyst Loren McDonald projected a potential dip in U.S. battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales in 2025, citing a lack of new high-volume model launches.
“By my current 2025 US EV sales forecast, I’m expecting BEV sales to be down about 100K units versus 2024,” McDonald shared, also noting that plug-in hybrid sales may remain flat or decline slightly.
While many factors have been blamed for the EV sales slowdown — from Tesla’s political fallout to range anxiety and economic uncertainty — McDonald emphasised one often-overlooked issue: the absence of new, mainstream BEVs.
Unlike 2024, which saw strong entries like the Honda Prologue and Chevy Equinox EV, 2025 lacks similar volume-driving launches.
McDonald noted that future potential hits, such as the Toyota CH-R BEV, Rivian R2, and the new Chevy Bolt, are likely to arrive in 2026 or later.
“Fundamentally, exciting new models that capture the attention of more mainstream buyers is key,” he wrote. “And unfortunately, we may not have some of those BEVs available in the US market until 2026 or 2027.”
He highlighted how strong debuts like the Honda Prologue and Chevy Equinox EV in 2024 will be hard to match in 2025, with no equivalent mass-market releases expected this year.
Meanwhile, a recent analyst report from Mizuho revealed that Tesla sales have “significantly underperformed” across all key regions, prompting a 16.5% cut in its price target.
The slowdown in Tesla deliveries, combined with an anticipated BEV pipeline gap, adds pressure to the sector.
| Category | Details (Q1 2025 unless noted) |
|---|---|
| Total EV Sales | ~296,000 units (↑11.4% YoY) |
| EV Market Share | ~7.5% of all new vehicle sales |
| Top Key-Player | Sales |
| Tesla | ~128,100 units (↓8–9% YoY), ~44% market share |
| General Motors | EV sales nearly doubled (+94% YoY), ~11–16% share |
| Ford | ↑12% YoY |
| Volkswagen | ↑55% YoY |
| BMW | ↑26% YoY |
| Nissan | ↑23% YoY |
| Porsche | ↑250% YoY |
| Subaru | ↑173% YoY |
| Volvo | ↑173% YoY |
| Toyota | ↑196% YoY |
U.S. EV sales in April declined by ~5% YoY, even as the broader auto market grew ~10%, likely due to weaker incentives and consumer hesitation.
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